Aside from billionaires, nobody appears to be ok with the financial system proper now—however by one key measure, Individuals are doing higher than ever.
The newest report from the Division of Labor reveals that functions for unemployment advantages have plunged to an nearly 60-year low. First-time profit claims dropped by 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted estimate of 187,000 claims for the week ending on July 18—a low not reached since September 1969.
As a result of first-time functions for unemployment advantages observe with layoffs, the brand new numbers counsel that a number of the largest fears round layoffs within the U.S. financial system aren’t manifesting in job losses, a minimum of proper now. Persevering with unemployment claims stayed largely the identical throughout the identical time interval, dipping by 2,000 claims to 1.8 million, following a 7,000 declare drop the week prior.
The brand new Division of Labor numbers seize an fascinating second in time, however they don’t present a full image of what Individuals are going through within the present job market. Whereas fewer persons are dropping their jobs proper now, many financial observers imagine the U.S. remains to be in a “low-fire, low-hire” surroundings by which many employers aren’t laying individuals off, however they’re not actively bringing new staff into the combination both.
Constructive indicators, detrimental sentiment
In 2026, job progress is perking up considerably however stays properly beneath what it was just some years in the past or previous to the pandemic. Payrolls within the non-public sector grew by a median of 88,000 within the first half of the 12 months, outpacing progress in 2024 and 2025 however not matching the pace of job beneficial properties in 2023. In June, hiring missed expectations, with U.S. employers solely including 57,000 new jobs—lower than half of the roles added within the month prior. June additionally noticed the promising jobs numbers from the prior two months revised down, that means that 74,000 fewer jobs have been added than initially reported.
As Glassdoor chief economist Daniel Zhao put it: “The fireworks present was canceled” in June. “The downward revisions and deceleration in jobs progress reverse a number of the optimism in latest months that the job market had been on the verge of accelerating to a brand new tempo, leaving staff ready nonetheless a bit of longer for a warmer job market to alleviate their frustration,” Zhao stated.
If the brand new unemployment numbers are promising on paper, many Individuals aren’t feeling it. A latest CNBC survey discovered that 61% of registered voters are pessimistic concerning the present financial system and its near-future image—the survey’s most detrimental consequence since late 2023. Solely 25% of respondents stated they have been feeling optimistic. The identical survey discovered that greater than 60% of individuals stated they have been slicing again on nonessential spending, like consuming at eating places and splurging on leisure. Even with inflation slowing last month, many Individuals aren’t seeing a lot to have a good time within the present financial system.
“Total, the U.S. labor market seems to be springing again from a subdued 2025, however it could be too early to conclude that draw back dangers have dissipated,” in response to a July report from Deloitte’s World Economics Analysis Heart. The report notes that client spending is slowing and tech-industry AI investments—a significant supply of unease amongst staff—haven’t been translating into elevated hiring by the world’s strongest firms.
