After months of buildup, we’re finally starting to see how the 2026 NFL Draft might shake out. We already know Fernando Mendoza will almost certainly be the No. 1 overall pick, and Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson might join him in the first round.
But is a first-round evaluation of Simpson the correct one? Are the first-round evaluations of other top prospects also correct?
We surveyed numerous scouts and executives across the NFL to figure out which prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft are underhyped and overhyped as we’re less than two weeks from one of the league’s grand events. One of the things we came away with was that there wasn’t even a consensus on Mendoza, let alone Simpson and some of the other quarterbacks.
So, which prospects should we be keeping our eyes on ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft? Here are the prospects executives think are getting too much hype, and the ones who aren’t getting hyped up enough.
***
Scout, assistant GM don’t believe in first-round hype surrounding Ty Simpson
Ralph Vacchiano: Most people around the league seem to believe there is only one quarterback truly worthy of being picked in the first round of the NFL Draft this year.
Don’t be surprised if there are two.
“You see it every year. Quarterbacks are so important we end up talking ourselves into guys who either aren’t really good enough, or just aren’t ready,” one assistant general manager told me. “We spend a million hours on them, and because there are so few who can really play in the league, guys with just a little bit of talent end up looking like stars by comparison.
“They end up getting overhyped, and then they end up getting overdrafted. Happens every year.”
Ty Simpson in Joel Klatt’s top 50 players
The one to watch this year: Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson.
“We’re talking about him as a first-rounder now?” one scout told me. “That’s less about him, more about the lack of other quarterbacks. Don’t get me wrong: I like him. Smart kid, good tools, plenty of potential. But he’s small (6-foot-1, 211) and barely played (15 college starts).
“He needs more time. And you can’t draft a developmental prospect in the first round. But I bet somebody will.”
Simpson, in fact, will be at the NFL Draft in Pittsburgh — a sign that someone either in his camp or the league is convinced he’ll be taken in the top 32 picks.
“And he’s probably right,” the assistant general manager told me. “Nobody’s letting him go there to be embarrassed. It means someone has convinced themselves he’s a first-round pick, even if most people don’t think he is.”
***
One NFL Scout not sold on Fernando Mendoza
Eric D. Williams: In an earlier NFL Confidential published during the NFL Scouting Combine, anticipated No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza tied with Ohio State safety Caleb Downs in our informal poll of a small group of NFL executives and scouts asked to rank the top overall player in this year’s draft.
However, even though he’s considered the No. 1 QB in this year’s draft class, Mendoza has detractors. Some scouts questioned the Indiana product’s arm strength, athleticism and ability to adjust to a pro-style offense once the Las Vegas Raiders eventually make him the No. 1 overall pick.
“His footwork is all over the road because of the RPO (run-pass option) offense,” a longtime NFL scout told me. “He has adequate deep ball strength, but his accuracy is inconsistent deep. He has good anticipation and zip on timing routes and good accuracy short to intermediate, but he’s not accurate when pressured.”
Fernando Mendoza in Joel Klatt’s top 50 players
The longtime scout lauded Mendoza’s toughness and willingness to deliver a strike while taking a hit under pressure, but also had concerns with how the Heisman Trophy winner’s “Leave it to Beaver” personality would translate to an NFL building.
“He is tough and will take a shot to the chest to complete a pass,” the scout told me. “He has talent, but a questionable ceiling — this might be the floor and the ceiling.
“I don’t know if the goody two-shoes, LinkedIn personality will fit into the diversity of an NFL locker room.”
***
Which QBs are flying under the radar?
Vacchiano and Williams: In a quarterback class that the NFL generally doesn’t love, there are a couple of potential late-round gems: Penn State’s Drew Allar and North Dakota State’s Cole Payton.
In fact, there are some NFL people who believe Allar has the talent to be drafted much higher than he probably will be.
“Most people think he’s a Day 3 guy, but I think he should go on Day 2,” one scout told us. “He looked like a potential first-rounder as a junior, before that [ankle] harm ruined his senior yr. He can play. He’s received an enormous arm. He simply wants extra expertise as a result of he’s so inconsistent.
“However when the instruments are there in a man that huge (6-5, 228), how will you not like that?”
Drew Allar put up robust stats throughout his school profession at Penn State, however struggled in huge moments. (Picture by Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Pictures)
Nevertheless, we additionally requested FOX Sports activities NFL Draft analyst Rob Rang to take part on this train, and he talked about Allar as one of many two prospects he is frowning upon.
“I believe he’s being overrated as a result of individuals are seeing the traits, they usually consider these traits are going to end in a consistency that we’ve by no means seen from him on the school stage,” Rang stated. “He has the dimensions, the arm and positively seems to be the half. And talks the discuss, when it comes to he’s received the intangibles you’re in search of.
“He’s simply by no means confirmed himself to be a really instinctive playmaker. There’s deer-in-the-headlights moments of his recreation that you just simply don’t count on for a participant who’s performed so long as he has.”
Allar was productive in his school profession. He threw for 7,402 yards, 61 touchdowns and 13 interceptions to go along with 12 dashing touchdowns in 45 profession video games at Penn State. However he additionally threw expensive interceptions in some huge moments at Penn State, like in its loss to Notre Dame within the 2025 Orange Bowl and its loss in opposition to Oregon this previous season.
As for Payton, two scouts agreed that he was a “venture” as a result of he performed on the FCS stage and he solely began one yr.
“But when he performed at virtually any [FBS] college, we’d all have him rated greater than Ty Simpson,” the assistant basic supervisor instructed us.
“I believe he has an upside to him,” a longtime NFL scout instructed us about Payton. “He can drive the ball down the sector. [He’s got] poise and tranquility within the pocket and in his play. He’s good rolling out left with accuracy. He can lengthen performs, a very good scrambler. He’s a powerful, up-field runner with contact energy. And he’s nifty and shifty as a runner.”
North Dakota State’s Cole Payton may be a reputation for NFL followers to know sooner or later. (Picture by Tommy Martino/College of Montana/Getty Pictures)
Payton (6-3, 233) threw for two,719 yards with 16 touchdowns and simply 4 interceptions final season, whereas dashing for 777 yards and 13 touchdowns.
“Persons are speaking a few place swap, or being a gimmick man,” the assistant basic supervisor stated. “Yeah, in his first yr, you may wish to discover a solution to get him on the sector for just a few performs as a result of he’s so athletic. However in time, he may very well be an NFL quarterback. The instruments are there.”
“He’s one of the best dual-threat quarterback within the draft,” added one of many scouts. “He may want three years to develop. However have you ever seen a number of the backups on this league? This child may be definitely worth the time.”
***
Which potential first-round picks ought to be getting extra love?
Vacchiano: Two different gamers that got here up as “underrated” gamers on this draft, in conversations that I had with league sources: Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson and Miami (Fla.) edge rusher Akheem Mesidor.
On Tyson, one scout instructed me that the two-time first-team All-Huge 12 member “may be one of the best receiver on this draft when it is all stated and carried out.”
His [hamstring] accidents final yr actually damage him, however when he’s wholesome, he can do all of it,” the scout added. “He can run each route, is powerful sufficient to battle for the ball. His velocity is sweet sufficient. He’s going to have quite a lot of 1,000-yard seasons within the league if he stays wholesome.”
As for Mesidor, a scout instructed me that whereas he is most likely behind the opposite high edge rusher prospects, his tape is simply too good to miss.
“I do know all of the knocks: He’s undersized (6-3, 259), he’s previous (25), he’s battled accidents. I get it. However he can play,” the scout stated. “If he had stayed wholesome and performed off the sting his total profession, we’d be speaking about him as a first-round choose. I’d most likely rank him under the highest edge rushers (Arvell Reese, David Bailey, Ruben Bain) for all these causes. However on the sector, I don’t suppose he’s all that far behind them.”
***
Which potential first-round choose is getting an excessive amount of love?
Vacchiano: Who’s probably the most overrated prospect on this yr’s draft? Two scouts talked about Georgia offensive deal with Monroe Freeling, who is mostly considered a first-round choose, although some mock drafts have put him inside the top 10.
“No method is he a high 10 choose,” one of many scouts instructed me. “There’s quite a bit to work with. He’s received nice measurement for an NFL deal with (6-7, 315). He confirmed everybody on the mix how athletic he’s and the way good he can transfer. However the movie doesn’t match. His mechanics get sloppy at instances. He received away with it in school, but it surely’s going to take a while for him within the NFL.”
Freeling was named second-team All-SEC this previous season. Nevertheless, it was his lone season as a full-time starter in school, which is why the opposite scout thinks Freeling may want a while to develop.
“It’s not that he’s a foul participant in any respect,” the opposite scout instructed me. “It’s about how excessive he’s ranked. He’s not within the class of [Utah’s Spencer Fano or Miami’s Francis Mauigoa]. He may be extra just like the fourth or fifth deal with on some boards. With that measurement, that’s nonetheless first-round high quality. There’s quite a bit there to work with. However he wants work. There are just a few different guys extra able to be plugged proper in.”
***
One high non-Energy 4 prospect falling, and one other on the rise?
Williams: One other participant who may very well be chosen later than projected, in keeping with the scouts I spoke with, is flexible Toledo security Emmanuel McNeil-Warren. At 6-3 and 200 kilos with first rate athletic traits, McNeil-Warren is a protracted, rangy athlete who completed with 4 interceptions at Toledo.
McNeil-Warren is projected by a number of draft analysts to go within the first spherical. Nevertheless, the longtime scouts I spoke with pointed to considerations with how the Toledo product’s ability set would transition to the NFL.
“He scares me as a result of he collision tackles together with his head down an excessive amount of,” the scout instructed me. “He’s finest in zone protection however will battle in man protection as a result of his velocity and athletic skill. He lacks closing velocity and deep velocity.”
Toledo security Emmanuel McNeil-Warren has earned some first-round buzz after being named a second-team All-American this previous season. (Picture by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Pictures)
Added one other scout: “He’s a very good participant, however not dominant sufficient for the primary spherical for my part.”
In the meantime, North Dakota State large receiver Bryce Lance is a sleeper to observe on this yr’s draft, in keeping with scouts I spoke with.
“He’s a tall, athletic lengthy strider with deceiving deep and lengthy velocity,” a longtime scout stated about Lance. “He takes delight in his blocking and has good toughness to his play. … He seems to be like he may very well be a very good gunner together with his velocity and toughness.”
North Dakota State’s Bryce Lance may be the following small college large receiver to make it huge within the NFL. (Picture by C. Morgan Engel/NCAA Images by way of Getty Pictures)
Lance, who’s the youthful brother of Los Angeles Chargers backup quarterback Trey Lance, examined effectively on the NFL Scouting Mix, posting a 4.34-second, 40-yard time, a 41.5-inch vertical leap and 11-foot, 1-inch broad leap at 6-3 and 204 kilos.
When it comes to manufacturing, Lance completed with 51 catches for 1,079 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, averaging a powerful 21.2 yards per reception this previous season. He additionally helped North Dakota State win the varsity’s tenth FCS title in 2024 and is projected to be a mid-round choose.
Different under-the-radar prospects within the non-power convention scouts stated to be looking out for embrace Georgia State receiver Ted Hurst and Toledo cornerbacks Andre Fuller and Avery Smith.
***
Which prospects does our draft skilled suppose are underhyped?
Williams: Our Rob Rang additionally weighed in for this train, pointing to Washington operating again Jonah Coleman as one of many two gamers he thinks deserve extra followers with lower than two weeks earlier than the beginning of the draft.
Rang believes Coleman’s skill to run by the trash in between the tackles and work ethic will translate to the following stage, evaluating him to a younger Maurice Jones-Drew. Coleman has simply two fumbles in 639 touches throughout his school profession.
“Every little thing about him, I believe, screams longtime NFL contributor,” Rang instructed me. “If [Coleman] performed for Ohio State we’d be speaking about him within the second spherical simply.”
Notre Dame operating again Jeremiyah Love is the clear No. 1 operating again on this yr’s draft, whereas Coleman is ranked No. 87 in Rang’s top 100.
Rang additionally likes Illinois edge rusher Gabe Jacas as a sophisticated product who can produce within the NFL the minute he takes the sector. Jacas led the Huge 10 in sacks final season with 11, and tasks as a high 100 draft prospect in a deep pool of defensive finish prospects who can get after the passer.
At 6-3 and 261 kilos, Jacas ran a 4.69-second, 40-yard time at his professional day and bench pressed 225 kilos 30 instances. Rang stated parts of his recreation remind him of Seattle Seahawks move rusher DeMarcus Lawrence.
“To me, he looks like one of many safer gamers on this yr’s draft,” Rang instructed me. “He’s not a man who’s going to be a Defensive Rookie of the Yr candidate or a future All-Professional man, however I believe he’ll be a gentle starter as soon as he walks into the NFL. And I believe he’s going to be that for a very long time.”
***
And which prospects does our draft skilled suppose are a bit overhyped?
Williams: So far as the overrated prospects, Rang first pointed to Allar, as we beforehand talked about. Allar is Rang’s seventh-ranked quarterback on this yr’s draft class and ranks a hundred and twentieth amongst his high 150 prospects.
Rang additionally believes potential first-round offensive deal with prospect Caleb Lomu out of Utah lacks the physicality to persistently produce as a beginning left deal with within the league and can want time to develop and develop in an NFL system.
“I personally suppose he would have been vastly improved had he come again for a yr and actually went into the burden room,” Rang stated. “I believe that’s what an NFL staff goes to must do. And if he begins as a rookie, I believe he might battle. He simply has to get stronger.”
