Most enterprise leaders are laser-focused on the existential risk that AI poses, with many of them citing it as a reason for major layoffs. At an occasion on April 15, nevertheless, Certainly CEO Hisayuki “Deko” Idekoba advised there’s one other pressure that may wreak havoc on the labor market—one which he argued is extra urgent.
“Really, what is going on in all developed international locations, together with European international locations and the U.S. . . . is a giant demographic change: an ageing labor market,” Idekoba mentioned at Semafor’s World Financial system Summit, Business Insider reported. He mentioned the sheer variety of individuals ageing out of the workforce and retiring can have a “means larger impression”—and a extra speedy impression—than the modifications fueled by AI.
Idekoba cited a few of Certainly’s analysis on workforce modifications within the U.S., which discovered that there can be a decline of about 20 million staff inside the subsequent 15 years. (He mentioned this may characterize a couple of 5% drop within the total workforce.) Based on Certainly, solely 20% of these individuals will depart the workforce attributable to AI displacement. The overwhelming majority—about 80%—will age out of their roles.
In international locations like Japan, considerations over an ageing workforce and declining start charges have pushed efforts to recruit more women staff. Conversely, because the Trump administration has cracked down on immigration, the U.S. could also be left with out an inflow of recent staff to fill many roles, together with these held by older workers who’re prone to exit the workforce quickly.
This looming labor scarcity would possible be notably acute within the trades, Idekoba mentioned, the place the U.S. is already struggling to maintain up with demand. “What’s taking place actually is there are such a lot of open positions: development jobs, plumbers, healthcare jobs, electricians,” he mentioned. “Such essentially vital jobs. However we don’t have an excellent pipeline.”
Some employers see automation as a possible answer for these woes, as extra individuals retire and depart the workforce. A 2025 analysis by Yale University’s Budget Lab discovered that AI may mitigate labor shortages in sure industries; authorized secretaries and administrative assistants, for instance, characterize jobs which are extra uncovered to AI and in addition dominated by older staff.
However as Idekoba identified, there are many jobs which are much less prone to be quickly reshaped by automation—and AI received’t essentially assist bridge these gaps, not to mention exchange staff outright.
