Sound Sensible: 5 Observations Forward of the 2026 NFL Draft

You know that Fernando Mendoza is going first overall. You know that at No. 2, the New York Jets are deciding between Texas Tech edge David Bailey and Ohio State edge Arvell Reese. And you know that the bona fide superstars in this draft — running back Jeremiyah Love, safety Caleb Downs and linebacker Sonny Styles — do not play premium positions.

That’s what we’re seeing and hearing at the surface level. But this is “Sound Smart,” where I try to spin forward, dive deeper and think outside the box. If I do my job, you’ll have a better understanding of what to expect ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft.

1. MONDAY MORNING CONTROVERSY

The Bengals won their trade for DT Dexter Lawrence. Period.

At first glance, no one seemed to like the Dexter Lawrence trade for the Cincinnati Bengals. (I did, to be clear. But basically no one else liked it.) It was “a steal” for New York — supposedly.

A Top 10 pick! For Dexter Lawrence?

A 28-year-old DT?

Why? How?!

It’s actually really simple.

Lawrence was a better player than whatever rookie the Bengals were going to get at 10th overall, even taking into account the financials, the age and the long-term planning. Would you rather have Dexter Lawrence or Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson? Would you rather have Dexter Lawrence or LSU corner Mansoor Delane? Lawrence or Miami tackle Francis Mauigoa? 

A top 10 pick sounds great. The reality of this year’s No. 10 is … not so great — unless maybe Ohio State safety Caleb Downs dropped that far. 

In this era of information, there are rare moments where we overthink a single transaction. But there are outliers that buck the greater trends, and I see clearly why the Bengals thought this was a win for their organization.

Cincinnati is a team that needs to get better in a hurry. The job security for coach Zac Taylor isn’t so much my concern. It’s all about the Bengals’ relationship with veteran QB Joe Burrow. Listen to the way he sounded disenchanted with the game last year. He sounded like he could retire — or like he’d consider pulling a Matthew Stafford and demanding a trade. Cincy could lose Burrow as early as 2027. In December, I called this the most important offseason ever for the Bengals. 

This is not a drill, folks. This is one of the biggest issues an organization can face.

The Bengals needed to address the issue. They’re starting to act like it, adding Lawrence to such offseason additions as edge Boye Mafe, safeties Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger and defensive tackle Jonathan Allen.

I can see why — to some — that might make this move sound desperate. Or illogical. 

It’s neither.

This 2026 draft isn’t very impressive at the top. There will be places on Day 2 when teams will get a third-round-graded player in the third round. Otherwise, I bet most teams will feel like they’re reaching, especially in Round 1. Some teams have fewer than 10 players with a first-round grade. It’s possible the Bengals are one of those teams. Which would lend more credibility to the idea that Lawrence was worth it.

It’s a part of a bigger trend: an offseason where premium players have been especially scarce. Because the draft was so weak, teams didn’t let their free agents get to the open market. (There were, for example, virtually no good defensive tackles on the open market with the best free agent option being 39-year-old Calais Campbell, who is actually still available, though not especially enticing). 

Because the draft is so weak and free agency looked thin, teams got more aggressive in acquiring veterans in the trade market — like cornerback Trent McDuffie, edge Maxx Crosby and receiver DJ Moore. (And I know that the Crosby deal with Baltimore fell apart, but that happened, in part, because Trey Hendrickson presented a rare value that the Ravens didn’t seem to initially anticipate. They probably didn’t anticipate his availability because of the trends I’m mentioning.) 

When it comes to the Lawrence deal, there is one thing that surprised me. And that’s the contract extension: one year, $28 million. I actually don’t mind that the one-year deal is equal to the entirety of the 10th overall pick’s contract (four years, $29 million). But by signing Lawrence to only one year, the Bengals will almost certainly get into a more major negotiation with him next year, when he’ll be 29 and will want a multi-year contract. It would be a major issue if the Bengals only had Lawrence for one year. There’s some merit in signing him to a three-year deal right now to avoid cap complications down the line.

But that’s a headache the Giants would gladly accept, because they’re now looking at a defense which, this season, will have to defend running backs such as Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs, among others. It’s suddenly a ground-game league. And the Giants’ defense looks like it’s in danger of turning into ground meat next season without Lawrence. 

New York will probably draft inside linebacker Sonny Styles at fifth overall to help offset Lawrence’s departure. (At No. 10, it looks like maybe the Giants will take an offensive player, like ASU receiver Tyson.) But as terrific as Styles is, he’d be a whole lot better if he was playing behind Lawrence.

The Bengals are a team in dire need of impact players. They didn’t see one falling into their lap on defense at 10th overall. So they moved that pick for a proven entity. If it works out, they might cure Burrow’s melancholia and keep him with the organization. 

Finally, it feels like the Bengals are taking action. 

2. IF THERE’S ONE THING YOU SHOULD KNOW

It’s OK to be thinking ahead to Arch Manning and the 2027 NFL Draft. Everyone else is.

At the NFL Combine in February, a pair of NFL agents sat discussing the 2026 draft at a Starbucks near the convention center in Indianapolis. But the more they discussed this year’s class, the more they talked about next year’s class.

Texas QB Arch Manning. Oregon QB Dante Moore. Ohio State QB Julian Sayin. South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers. LSU QB Sam Leavitt.

That’s what 2027 might have to offer.

There’s a lot of talent to get excited about — next year.

There are enthusiasts who love this year’s presumed No. 1 pick, Fernando Mendoza, including — of course — the folks in Las Vegas. He is a very good prospect. After him, however, the quarterback class looks starkly undertalented and/or underdeveloped. After Mendoza, there’s a real lack of star potential at the top of the first round at just about every premium position.

Quarterbacks Ty Simpson (Alabama) and Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) are compelling players, and they’re almost definitely going to be the QB2 and QB3 of this year’s class. Cole Payton (North Dakota State) figures to present strong value as a mid-round developmental prospect. But it’s a good thing these QBs came out this year, because they almost certainly wouldn’t rank as favorably in next year’s class. 

Arch Manning, for example, would’ve probably been the No. 1 overall pick this year. Dante Moore might’ve also pushed Mendoza for QB1, if the Oregon prospect had entered the draft.

It seems highly likely that Simpson will land in Round 1 — but in a place where he won’t have to see the field in 2026. Even his father, Jason Simpson, told me that Ty wasn’t like Mendoza, who was interviewing for jobs in 2026. Simpson was interviewing for a starting job in 2027.

Around the league, we have seen a few teams treading water at quarterback, most notably the Arizona Cardinals and Cleveland Browns. It’s not paradise in the quarterback rooms for the Atlanta Falcons, Pittsburgh Steelers or New York Jets.

Yet there is less urgency around the quarterback position this year than normal. And I think that’s because everyone is thinking about next year’s prizes.

There’s an obvious risk, because this draft class was supposed to be better than it turned out to be. The highly-anticipated quarterbacks might return to the safety of NIL paychecks, which are — in some cases — higher than what a player might make in the NFL. Even considering all that, it’s almost a total certainty that next year’s group will be better than this year’s group.

And so the 2027 draft class is looming — and to some degree lording — over the 2026 draft.

3. SHARING A NOT-SO-DIRTY DRAFT SECRET

Is there a pattern around prospects who turn into busts? Chiefs GM Brett Veach thinks he’s found one.

Why do some great prospects fail to pan out?

If only NFL general managers knew for sure.

And for executives who only get a few years in their decision-making chair, it’s even harder to get a sense of whether there’s even a pattern. That’s why Chiefs general manager Brett Veach’s answer to a question at his pre-draft press conference last week struck me as so interesting. 

This is Veach’s 10th year in his role. During that time, the Chiefs have hit on guys all over the roster, from QB Patrick Mahomes to center Creed Humphrey to defensive tackle Chris Jones to cornerback Trent McDuffie. They’ve also missed on some players, from running back Clyde Helaire-Edwards to receiver Skyy Moore to defensive end Breeland Speaks. But more often than not, the Chiefs have hit in the top three rounds, which is a major reason why they have made so many Super Bowls. 

But last season, we saw that while Mahomes can do a whole lot — he can’t do it all.

“If you miss on a player, it’s probably the character and the love for football,” Veach said. “We all get enamored by what a player can do, and I think everyone has an element of, ‘Well, if he’s in our environment, it’ll be different.’ We do have a great environment here. If anyone’s going to get the best out of any player, it’s going to be here. But even [with] a few of these gamers, it’s arduous.”

It’s one of many greatest clichés of the draft course of — these discussions of character and love for the sport. However that’s partially as a result of it’s not quantifiable and partially as a result of it comes off as coachspeak. There’s no straightforward measurement for both — or for the way issues may change as soon as a participant arrives within the NFL.

However the extra you communicate with evaluators, the extra you already know that each prospect requires improvement. And you may’t assist a man who can not help himself.

“Nobody’s going to be excellent, and also you’re not all the time going to get Pat Mahomes and Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith with regard to psychological make-up,” Veach mentioned. “The blokes that you just do roll the cube for, [you] plan the strategy … and simply work on that through the years. Once more, I’m going again to the errors you make are guys that on the finish of the day, they simply don’t love soccer. Regardless that you thought you had been going to vary them, you didn’t.

“We have tried to do higher with that course of, figuring out these issues and ensuring that we’re searching for the appropriate traits and traits that do lend itself to future change.”

4. WHAT EVERYONE ELSE IS AFRAID TO SAY

Hey Cowboys, keep the course.

Dallas is placing collectively a stable protection. Possibly it isn’t a spectacular one, but it surely’s a very good one.

The Cowboys have taken the affected person strategy of spreading cash across the protection — slightly than investing in a single unit with an pointless sense of urgency. That is the Micah Parsons impact, the place they’ve sacrificed one elite pass-rusher within the title of getting elite offensive playmakers and a well-rounded protection.

Don’t lose sight of the plan, Dallas.

“I’ve checked out that mirror so much, about how one can go up and down and commerce and do these sorts of issues,” proprietor Jerry Jones mentioned in a press convention on the homeowners conferences in March. “And completely, we’ll entertain bettering or an in-draft learn on what provides us a greater likelihood to get one other participant, and nonetheless have our choose and the pink meat of high gamers. … With the form of property or the form of ammunition we have on this draft, you must have a look at all machinations.”

There’s a rising sentiment that Dallas desires to commerce up for Sonny Types or Arvell Reese.

Possibly into the highest 5 picks.

I can’t get behind both idea. It could derail what gave the impression to be the Cowboys’ technique across the Parsons commerce. 

From this draft, Reese is most like Parsons — however given how little taking part in time Reese bought in his edge function at Ohio State, he’s a legitimately dangerous play for an funding that might doubtless require two first-round picks. The movie is superb, however there’s not that a lot of it.

It’s a neater promote for Types, who’s (for my part) one among two clear-cut immediate Professional Bowlers alongside Jeremiyah Love. However buying and selling up for Types is similar to the plot of Draft Day — giving up a number of first-round picks to get a linebacker. It’s essentially the most ridiculous plot level of the film and that’s saying one thing. I don’t just like the Cowboys doing it in actual life.

So right here’s hoping if the Cowboys do transfer up, they don’t fear about moving into the highest 5 picks. They leap up a number of spots, if needed, to snag Miami edge Rueben Bain or Caleb Downs … and even Types, if he slips to seventh or eighth. However the entire thought was to make use of the Parsons commerce as a chance to convey depth and steadiness to the protection. Don’t abandon that complete thought. Ensure you come away from the 2026 draft with two first-round picks. Ensure you protect your first-rounders within the 2027 draft. 

For the love of all issues good on the planet, don’t write “Sonny Styles No Matter What” on a Submit-it. 

5. PEELING BACK THE CURTAIN

The draft course of has been sophisticated for Rueben Bain.

The draft process is long, invasive and comprehensive. Only a month in the past, Caleb Downs instructed me that he didn’t really feel just like the months main as much as the draft had been one large interview as a result of NFL groups are “doing background checks in your childhood stuff, so at this level, your complete life is form of a job interview.” 

That’s why NFL groups knew about Rueben Bain’s automobile accident lengthy earlier than the general public did. In March 2024, Bain rear-ended one other car, per a police report published on The Read Optional. Three of the 4 passengers were not wearing seat belts and 22-year-old Future Betts sustained accidents extreme sufficient to place her in a coma. She died in June 2024.

“We’ve identified about it since final summer season,” one scout instructed me concerning the accident. “I nonetheless assume he goes within the high 10. Once more, everybody has identified about this within the NFL.”

I sat down with Bain final month in Portland on the Adidas “Professional Day” — simply after the NFL Mix — to speak in regards to the pre-draft course of. On the time, I didn’t know in regards to the accident, which is vital context for the interview.

I requested him how his conferences with groups went. And he instructed me what it was like talking with the Jets, who had been his first interview on the mix and are selecting at Nos. 2 and 16 within the draft on Thursday evening.

“It positively was nerve-wracking,” Bain instructed me. “That first assembly, strolling as much as my first assembly, my coronary heart was pounding — like actually beating on my chest. However as soon as I sat down and bought within the swing of issues, I used to be truly simply being myself, speaking, being assured in my data of the sport.”

One NFL scout confirmed that his workforce — and sure each workforce — checked in in regards to the accident. So in all chance, Bain answered some arduous questions from the Jets. Chiefs GM Brett Veach mentioned his scouting workers spoke with Bain about it.

The unusual actuality, in hindsight, was that Bain was one of many mix’s greatest speaking factors for various causes. The dialogue centered round his arm size (30⅞ inches), tied for the fourth-shortest for a defensive finish since 1999.

“I don’t actually give it some thought,” he instructed me. “I don’t give no power to it.”

Bain appeared again on his time on the mix with fondness.

“I may’ve stayed in Indianapolis without end if we stored doing what we was doing,” he instructed me. “All people there was form of complaining about it, dragging about it. However for me, my first two days was tremendous enjoyable, simply speaking soccer, interviewing with groups, stuff like that. Then the subsequent three, 4 days, simply watching guys compete, getting on the market, seeing the entire expertise of the mix.”