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Analysts warn international famine fears are rising as food prices climb and fragile provide chains pressure amid the Strait of Hormuz disaster, elevating the chance of a chronic, Suez-scale, eight-year disruption.
Because the battle entered Day 62, the U.S. maintained its naval blockade of traffic coming into and exiting Iranian ports, whereas Iran continued to successfully shut the Strait.
“Finest case, there’s an settlement between the U.S. and Iran inside the subsequent few weeks, and the Strait reopens,” Lars Jensen, CEO and companion at Vespucci Maritime, advised Fox Information Digital.
“— and it needs to be a deal the place there’s belief that Iran is sufficiently happy with the deal such that they don’t out of the blue shut the strait once more,” he mentioned.
AIRLINES MAY CUT FLIGHT SCHEDULES AS IRAN TENSIONS DRIVE UP FUEL COSTS, EXPERTS WARN
A cargo ship sails within the Persian Gulf towards the Strait of Hormuz on April 22, 2026. (AP Photograph)
“Even in that case, it would nonetheless take months for the availability chains to revert again to normality.”
President Donald Trump introduced on April 21 that he would delay renewed strikes on Iran till it presents a proposal for long-term peace, successfully extending a 14-day ceasefire indefinitely.
Trump mentioned Washington’s blockade of Iranian ports has been efficient, urging Tehran to “simply surrender” as tensions escalate over the waterway.
“Worst case, we will have a look at the eight-year closure of the Suez Canal from 1967 to 1975,” Jensen mentioned.
The SKS Doyles crude oil tanker strikes alongside the Suez Canal in the direction of Ismailia in Suez, Egypt, on Dec. 21, 2023, amid a pointy decline in tanker visitors via the Crimson Sea attributable to assaults disrupting international commerce routes. (Stringer/Bloomberg)
“Regardless of its importance to the global economy, it proved not possible to reopen the canal for these eight years,” he mentioned.
The Suez Canal, shut from 1967 to 1975 after the Arab-Israeli battle, has confronted recurring disruption together with Red Sea attacks since 2023—driving up insurance coverage prices, making a “shadow blockade,” and curbing visitors.
For Hormuz, Jensen says fertilizer—central to agricultural manufacturing—is probably the most vital issue, and any sustained disruption may rapidly ripple via international meals methods.
“Fertilizer is a very powerful aspect. Thirty p.c of the world’s seaborne fertilizer comes from the Persian Gulf,” Jensen mentioned. “Fertilizer costs are already rising quick,” he warned.
IRAN FIRES LIVE MISSILES INTO STRAIT OF HORMUZ AS TRUMP ENVOYS ARRIVE FOR NUCLEAR TALKS
A ship is seen passing via the Strait of Hormuz throughout a two-week short-term ceasefire between the USA and Iran on April 8, 2026. (Shady Alassar/Anadolu/Getty Photographs)
“In rich nations, it means costlier meals come harvest season, and in poor nations, it signifies that farmers proper now can not afford fertilizer,” Jensen added.
“This may result in the harvest being decrease later within the season, resulting in fast will increase in meals costs in very poor nations — and such a scenario will increase the chance of famine and battle.”
Diplomatic efforts stay fragile between the U.S. and Iran as of Thursday, with restricted indicators of progress.
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Based on experiences, a large banner hangs on a constructing in Tehran’s central Enqelab Sq. declaring, “The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed; all the Persian Gulf is our searching floor.”
“Cargo vessels should not going via for the straightforward purpose that industrial firms don’t need to see their seafarers potentially killed,” Jensen added.
