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The obvious collapse of high-stakes U.S.-Iran negotiations has intensified fears that senior figures inside Tehran’s management may flee to Russia, in search of refuge to “proceed their insurgency and undermine any new regime,” an analyst warns.
The breakdown in talks comes as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu additionally informed CBS’ “60 Minutes” that toppling Iran’s regime may now even be a practical final result.
Netanyahu famous that any collapse would dismantle the “scaffolding” of Tehran’s international terror proxy community, additionally doubtlessly ending Hezbollah’s affect within the area.
“The entire scaffolding of the terrorist proxy community that Iran constructed collapses if the regime in Iran collapses,” Netanyahu stated.
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President Donald Trump stated U.S. navy strikes on Iran had been so efficient they eradicated a lot of the regime’s anticipated management succession bench, elevating questions on who will lead the Islamic Republic. (Mohsen Ganji/AP:Workplace of Supreme Chief of Iran)
“I believe you possibly can’t predict when that can occur. Is it potential? Sure. Is it assured? No,” he warned.
With diplomatic choices maybe exhausted and the regime’s stability in question, an knowledgeable suggests the exit technique any management could also be eyeing is likely to be just like that of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who fled Syria in 2024.
“If the state of affairs deteriorates additional, some senior figures may doubtlessly observe a path like Bashar al-Assad’s interior circle and search refuge in Russia,” Center East knowledgeable Saeid Golkar informed Fox Information Digital.
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Whereas prime commanders might be Moscow-bound, lower-ranking figures would extra doubtless head for Iraq or Afghanistan, Center East knowledgeable Saeid Golkar informed Fox Information Digital. (Hamed Malekpour/Islamic Consultative Meeting Information Company/WANA)
Golkar, a senior adviser at United Against Nuclear Iran, famous that flight locations would doubtless depend upon rank.
Whereas prime commanders like Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf may head to Moscow, lower-ranking figures would extra doubtless search shelter in Iraq or Afghanistan, the place the IRGC maintains operational connections, he clarified.
“For essentially the most senior figures, Russia would in all probability be the almost certainly vacation spot, once more as we noticed with Bashar al-Assad,” Golkar stated, noting many officers have already moved wealth into “monetary networks exterior Iran.”
The present disaster began following the dying of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei earlier in 2026 in the course of the onset of Operation Epic Fury.
Whereas his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was named successor, studies proceed to point he was severely injured within the strikes and has been absent from latest negotiations.
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Mojtaba Khamenei, the brand new supreme chief of Iran and second son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is “both lifeless or in unhealthy situation,” based on Golkar. (Hamed Jafarnejad/ISNA/WANA/Reuters)
Golkar defined that the “invisible state,” or Bayt-e Rahbari, was designed to outlive decapitation, whereas the ideological price of fleeing for leaders can be excessive.
“Contained in the regime’s ideological tradition, leaving the nation in the course of the collapse would seem like desertion,” Golkar famous.
Nevertheless, as navy fractures deepen and succession remains uncertain, the “Assad mannequin” of in search of Russian safety seems more and more engaging to these on the prime.
Mojtaba, nonetheless, is “both lifeless or in unhealthy situation, that he can not ship any video or voice message,” Golkar added.
“If he had died from his accidents, there was no clear pure successor. He was the continuation of the regime.”
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“Nonetheless, the system was designed for continuity throughout a disaster,” Golkar stated, including that the objective is to “be sure that the regime may survive even when formal establishments had been broken, leaders had been killed, or civilian authorities stopped functioning.”
“I’d describe it as a regime designed not simply to manipulate, however all the time to try to survive decapitation,” Golkar added.
