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Zillow economists simply revealed their up to date 12-month forecast, projecting that U.S. house costs—as measured by the Zillow Residence Worth Index—will shift down 0.1% from April 2026 to April 2027.
That’s a tiny downward revision from its 12-month nationwide forecast revealed in April (+0.1%) and its 12-month nationwide forecast revealed in March (+0.5%).
U.S. house costs, as measured by the Zillow Residence Worth Index, are currently up 0.7% year over year. Zillow’s newest 12-month outlook (-0.1%) expects nationwide house costs to stay close to that subdued tempo. So long as nationwide house value progress stays under U.S. wage growth (presently up 3.6%), underlying fundamentals ought to proceed to enhance. If that pattern continues—and mortgage charges don’t spike—nationwide housing affordability must also proceed to regularly enhance.
Whereas Zillow’s nationwide house value forecast isn’t destructive—it isn’t precisely bullish both. It’s calling for a smooth nationwide housing market in 2026, one the place nationwide housing affordability might enhance barely as U.S. revenue progress outpaces U.S. house value progress.
What sort of regional variation does Zillow anticipate over the subsequent 12 months?
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Among the many 300 largest U.S. metro-area housing markets, Zillow forecast the most important house value enhance from April 2026 to April 2027 to happen in these 15 metros:
- Syracuse, New York → 4.8%
- Rockford, Illinois → 4.5%
- Atlantic Metropolis, New Jersey → 4.1%
- Utica, New York → 4.0%
- Rochester, New York → 3.9%
- Binghamton, New York → 3.6%
- Pottsville, Pennsylvania → 3.3%
- Knoxville, Tennessee→ 3.2%
- Norwich, Connecticut → 3.2%
- Erie, Pennsylvania → 3.1
- Morristown, Tennessee → 3.1%
- Janesville, Wisconsin → 3.0%
- Buffalo → 2.9%
- Youngstown, Ohio → 2.9%
- Kingston, New York → 2.9%
Among the many 300 largest U.S. metro-area housing markets, Zillow forecast the most important house value decline from April 2026 to April 2027 to happen in these 15 metros:
- Houma, Louisiana → -6.7%
- Lake Charles, Louisiana → -5.8%
- Austin → -5.4%
- New Orleans → -4.4%
- Alexandria, Louisiana → -4.1%
- Chico, California → -3.5%
- Vallejo, California → -3.4%
- Beaumont, Texas → -3.4%
- Lafayette, Louisiana → -3.3%
- Punta Gorda, Florida → -3.2%
- San Francisco → -3.1%
- Santa Rosa, California → -3.0%
- Denver → -2.8%
- San Antonio → -2.8%
- Shreveport, Louisiana → -2.8%
My fast take: Primarily based by myself evaluation, I consider Zillow is just too bearish on the New Orleans metro-area housing market—which is displaying indicators of gentle tightening after passing by way of a correction—and likewise too bearish on pockets of the Bay Space, particularly San Francisco correct, which has benefited from AI growth spillover (though pockets of Oakland stay weak).
Under is what the present year-over-year price of house value change appears to be like like for single-family and apartment house costs. The Sunbelt, specifically Southwest Florida, is presently the epicenter of housing market softness over the previous yr.
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