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Zillow economists simply revealed their up to date 12-month forecast, projecting that U.S. dwelling costs—as measured by the Zillow House Worth Index—will shift +0.0% between March 2026 and March 2027.
That’s a light downward revision from its 12-month forecast revealed final month (+0.5%).
U.S. dwelling costs, as measured by the Zillow House Worth Index, are at the moment up +0.8% year-over-year. Zillow’s newest 12-month outlook (+0.0%) expects nationwide dwelling costs to stay close to that subdued tempo. So long as nationwide dwelling worth progress stays beneath U.S. earnings progress (at the moment up +3.9%), underlying fundamentals ought to proceed to enhance because the Pandemic Housing Growth’s housing demand pull forward and overheating will get smoothed out. If that development continues—and mortgage charges don’t spike—nationwide housing affordability also needs to proceed to step by step enhance.
Whereas Zillow’s nationwide dwelling worth forecast isn’t detrimental—it isn’t precisely bullish both. They’re calling for a tender nationwide housing market in 2026, one the place nationwide housing affordability could enhance barely as U.S. earnings progress outpaces U.S. dwelling worth progress.
What sort of regional variation does Zillow anticipate over the following 12 months?
Click on right here for an interactive model of Zillow’s forecast for over 400 markets
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Among the many 300 largest U.S. metro space housing markets, Zillow forecast the most important dwelling worth improve between March 2026 and March 2027 to happen in these 15 metros:
- Syracuse, NY —> +5.0%
- Rockford, IL —> +4.5%
- Atlantic Metropolis, NJ —> +4.5%
- Rochester, NY —> +4.0%
- Utica, NY —> +3.5%
- Knoxville, TN —> +3.4%
- Norwich, CT —> +3.3%
- Binghamton, NY —> +3.3%
- Morristown, TN —> +3.3%
- Inexperienced Bay, WI —> +3.2%
- Appleton, WI —> +3.1%
- Wausau, WI —> +3.1%
- Pottsville, PA —> +3.1%
- Hartford, CT —> +3.0%
- Janesville, WI —> +3.0%
Among the many 300 largest U.S. metro space housing markets, Zillow forecast the most important dwelling worth decline between March 2026 and March 2027 to happen in these 15 metros:
- Houma, LA —> -7.0%
- Lake Charles, LA —> -5.6%
- Austin, TX —> -4.6%
- New Orleans, LA —> -4.4%
- Shreveport, LA —> -3.6%
- Beaumont, TX —> -3.4%
- Alexandria, LA —> -3.4%
- Lafayette, LA —> -3.2%
- Vallejo, CA —> -3.2%
- Chico, CA —> -3.2%
- Punta Gorda, FL —> -3.1%
- Denver, CO —> -3.0%
- Santa Rosa, CA —> -3.0%
- Corpus Christi, TX —> -2.7%
- San Antonio, TX —> -2.6%
My fast take: Based mostly alone evaluation, I imagine Zillow is simply too bearish on the New Orleans metro space housing market—which is displaying indicators of gentle tightening (see map beneath) after passing by means of a correction—and in addition too bearish on pockets of the Bay Space—particularly San Jose—which has benefited from the AI growth.
Beneath is what the present year-over-year fee of dwelling worth change appears to be like like for single-family and rental dwelling costs. The Solar Belt, particularly Southwest Florida, is at the moment the epicenter of housing market softness over the previous 12 months.
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